Anticipating 2014 Corn Yields

As harvest time gets closer, I’m sure the anticipation of crop yields is increasing.  With planting dates being later than normal, June being unusually wet, and July & August being dry, we are all anxious to find out what this year’s yields will be.  One way to help alleviate some of that stress from anticipation is to do a yield estimate.

Estimating corn yields can be quite helpful when it comes to making management decisions, such as storage and marketing.  There are a couple of different methods out there to help estimate yields, some more accurate than others.  No matter which equation you choose to use, each method does require you to count kernels per ear.  Simpler methods for estimating corn yield (kernels per ear X ears per acre divided by kernels per bushel) include making assumptions about ears per acre and kernels per bushel.  However, there is also a more complex equation which accounts for kernel size and population, and has proven to be more accurate.  (And after doing the math, I feel like I owe my high school algebra teacher a huge apology for questioning him as to why I had to learn algebra.) 

Crop uniformity greatly influences the accuracy of any yield estimation technique. The less uniform the field, the greater the number of samples that should be taken to estimate yield for the field. There is a fine line between fairly sampling disparate areas of the field and sampling randomly within a field so as not to unfairly bias the yield estimates up or down.

A few things to remember when doing yield estimates is that estimates are only as accurate as the field area that was sampled.  Yield estimate calculations mean very little if only the best or worst area in the field was sampled.  Repeating yield estimates in several areas of each field will greatly improve accuracy.   Also remember that water availability, insects, weeds, diseases and other factors can affect seed fill and final yields, which will cause estimates and actual yields to vary greatly.

I have only had the opportunity to do yield estimates in three corn fields so far, which ranged from 175 to 217.  So if I had to make a prediction for 2014 yields based on those three, I feel certain that McLean County will have a “good year”.  However, I am anxious to get out and do several more yield estimates so that I can say that with a smile and with a lot more certainty.

For more information on estimating corn yields, contact the McLean County Cooperative Extension Office at (270)273-3690.  Educational programs of the Cooperative Extension Service serve all people regardless of race, color, age, sex, religion, disability or national origin.